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German Election System - Bundestag 2025 - New Voting System Explained [dark version] thumbnail

German Election System - Bundestag 2025 - New Voting System Explained [dark version]

5 min read

Based on The Bright Side of Mathematics's video on YouTube. If you like this content, support the original creators by watching, liking and subscribing to their content.

TL;DR

Each voter casts two ballots: the first vote selects district winners, while the second vote determines each party’s proportional seat share.

Briefing

Germany’s Bundestag election hinges on a mixed system designed to match party strength proportionally while still letting voters directly choose district winners. Each voter casts two ballots: the second vote determines how many seats each party gets overall, while the first vote selects who wins those seats in local electoral districts. The result is a parliament meant to reflect party vote shares without abandoning the idea of direct representation.

The Bundestag is filled with 6030 members, but the core seat target is 630 seats. Party representation is driven primarily by the second vote, which is cast for a party list. Because Germany has many parties, only those that clear eligibility rules earn seats. In practice, the second vote totals across Germany—often described as tens of millions of valid votes—are converted into seat counts using proportional allocation rules, with rounding handled by the Webster method (also called the Sainte-Laguë method). That proportional step fixes each party’s overall strength before the system assigns individual people.

The first vote works differently and operates at a lower geographic level. Germany is split into 16 states, and for the Bundestag election those states are further divided into 299 electoral districts. Each district has its own ballot for the first vote, where candidates compete directly; the candidate with the most first votes in a district wins that district. These district winners then feed into the party’s seat allocation, but the first vote cannot change the party’s total number of seats set by the second vote.

To decide which parties are “important” enough to enter the Bundestag, Germany applies an electoral threshold: parties that fall below 5% of the second votes are excluded unless they win at least three districts. National minority parties are exempt from this hurdle, with only one such party currently relevant in Germany. After the threshold filters parties, seat totals are computed proportionally at the national level and then refined at the state level.

Once each party’s seat count is known for each state, seats are filled using the party lists submitted in that state. The list is ordered, and district winners belonging to the party get priority placement. The system then proceeds down the list to allocate remaining seats, using performance among district winners as a tie-breaker for who rises highest. Three outcomes can emerge: if district winners and list candidates fit neatly, the party’s seats are fully occupied; if too many district winners occur relative to the party’s proportional seat entitlement, some lower-ranked district winners may miss out; and in rare cases, if a state party list is too short, some seats can remain empty, reducing the total below 630.

Finally, the system can exceed 630 seats if a party’s vote share implies it should receive more than half the seats—an exceptional adjustment meant to preserve proportionality. Under typical conditions, with sufficiently long state lists and no overwhelming dominance, the Bundestag lands at the standard 630-seat size for the 2025 election.

Cornell Notes

Germany’s Bundestag election uses mixed-member proportional representation to balance proportional party strength with direct district choice. Voters cast two ballots: the second vote selects party lists and determines each party’s total seat share, while the first vote picks district winners in 299 electoral districts. Parties must clear a 5% threshold on second votes to enter the Bundestag, unless they win at least three districts; national minority parties are exempt. Seat counts are calculated proportionally using the Webster (Sainte-Laguë) method, first nationally and then allocated across the 16 states. Finally, seats are filled from state party lists with priority given to district winners, with rare edge cases where lists are too short (empty seats) or a party is so dominant that extra seats are added.

How do the first vote and second vote differ in what they control?

The first vote is cast for a candidate in a specific electoral district and determines who wins that district (winner-takes-all within the district). The second vote is cast for a party list and determines how many seats the party receives overall in the Bundestag. The first vote cannot change the party’s total seat share; it only affects which individuals fill those seats.

What role do electoral districts and the 16 states play in the system?

Germany has 16 states, but the first vote is organized through 299 electoral districts that lie within each state. Each district has its own first-vote contest and produces one district winner. The second vote is handled at the state level: parties submit state-specific lists, and the second-vote results are used to allocate seats across states before filling seats from those lists.

What is the 5% hurdle, and how can a small party still win seats?

A party that receives less than 5% of valid second votes is excluded. The exception is if the party wins at least three electoral districts via the first vote; then it can still qualify for seats despite missing the 5% threshold. National minority parties are exempt from the hurdle; the transcript notes there is currently only one such party in Germany.

How are proportional seat totals calculated once eligible parties are identified?

After applying the threshold rules, seat numbers are computed using the Webster method (also known as the Sainte-Laguë method). The system targets 630 seats as the standard size, with rounding handled by the method. The proportional totals then guide how many seats each party gets in each of the 16 states, using the state-level distribution of second votes.

How are individual seats assigned to people from party lists?

Each party’s state list is ordered. District winners belonging to the party are given priority, and the remaining seats are filled by moving down the list. If too many district winners occur relative to the party’s proportional entitlement, the percentage performance of district winners can matter for which winners actually receive seats. In rare cases, if a state list is too short, some seats can remain unoccupied.

When can the Bundestag end up with more or fewer than 630 seats?

Fewer than 630 seats can happen if a state party list is too short to fill all allocated seats, leaving some seats empty. More than 630 seats can occur as an exceptional adjustment when a party is strong enough that the vote-based seat share implies it should receive more than half the seats; then additional seats are added to reach that proportional outcome.

Review Questions

  1. Why can the first vote change which individuals enter the Bundestag without changing how many seats a party gets overall?
  2. What conditions allow a party below 5% of second votes to still qualify for seats?
  3. How does the Webster (Sainte-Laguë) method fit into the process of turning second votes into seat counts?

Key Points

  1. 1

    Each voter casts two ballots: the first vote selects district winners, while the second vote determines each party’s proportional seat share.

  2. 2

    Germany’s Bundestag seat allocation targets 630 seats, with proportional calculations handled by the Webster (Sainte-Laguë) method.

  3. 3

    The first vote runs in 299 electoral districts within the 16 states, producing one district winner per district.

  4. 4

    Parties below the 5% threshold on second votes are excluded unless they win at least three districts; national minority parties are exempt.

  5. 5

    After thresholding, seat totals are computed proportionally and then allocated across states using state-level second-vote results.

  6. 6

    Seats are filled from state party lists, with district winners prioritized and list order used to assign remaining seats.

  7. 7

    Rare edge cases can leave seats empty (lists too short) or push the total above 630 (exceptional dominance requiring extra seats).

Highlights

The second vote sets party seat totals proportionally; the first vote only decides which candidates fill those seats.
A party can bypass the 5% hurdle by winning at least three electoral districts, even with a low second-vote share.
Seat counts are computed using the Webster (Sainte-Laguë) method, then reallocated across states before filling lists.
If a party’s state list is too short, some Bundestag seats can remain unoccupied—an outcome described as theoretically possible.
Extra seats beyond 630 can be added when a party’s vote share implies it should receive more than half the seats.

Topics

  • Bundestag Election
  • Mixed-Member Proportional Representation
  • Two-Vote Ballot
  • Electoral Threshold
  • Seat Allocation